How to Argue with "Climate Change is Natural"

There are few things that people like more than being right. And in this case, they are right. Well, sort of.

First, agree with the person. Why, yes! Climate change is natural. And it comes from all over. Natural climate change (and make a conscious effort to keep saying the word “natural” in front of “climate change”) is mostly driven by atmospheric patterns and astrological patterns.

1. Energy Balance:

Joseph Fourier years and years ago figured out that the energy from the sun warms the earth, aka radiation. The temperature of the earth is the balance between the heat that comes in from the sun, and the absorbed energy that is emitted back out from the ground or initially reflected and not absorbed (by clouds, snow, etc.). Energy balance really is the overarching controller of all things climate. And everything that follows fits within changing that balance.

2. Sun Spot Cycles:

Sunspots are temporary dark spots on the sun. These sunspots fluctuate and result in higher or lower solar outputs that reach and heat up the earth. These are generally in 11 year cycles, but the trends change over time. 

3. Volcanoes and Geologic Activity

Oooooh, aahhh. Volcanoes change the weather? Oh they sure do—they actually cool it. And it is quite the fun one to bring up in conversation, especially with all the explosions. When a volcano erupts, it spews particles into the atmosphere. These particles block incoming solar radiation and can cool that area (or even the whole globe) for months to years at a time. Specifically, the ash and dust that we can clearly see blocks the sunset, but the sulphur that comes with it actually reflects the sunlight back. The aerosols released can affect precipitation patterns leading to reduced rainfall. There have been many times over the last million years where high volcanic activity has led to a global decrease in temperature. Even as recently as the Philippians Mount Pinatubo eruption, which emitted 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere in 1991, globally decreased average temperatures by 0.5 degrees Celsius for several years.

4. Earth’s Orbit

This one might get a little complicated to explain causally, but basically the earth has natural movements that make it further or closer to the sun, therefore changing its incoming radiation. They are known as Milankovitch cycles, and include cyclical changes in Earth’s axial tilt or orbit. About 60% of Earth’s climate record aligns with these. If you want to get into it, you can pull out your phone and google a reference photo. But just for your own knowledge sake, there are three main patterns. Eccentricity is around 100,000 years, obliquity is around 41,000 years, and precession is 23,000 years.

5. Ocean Cycles

Now unlike the others, ocean cycles don't actually change earth’s energy balance. Over periods of months to decades, the natural change in the currents cause regional warming and cooling. This one doesn’t really help your argument, but does exist and is worth knowing in case it comes up.

You really want to throw them a bone? In terms of earth’s history, we are in an ice age. Yes, you read that right. The earth has been cooling for 1000 years. So clearly there is natural climate change…how do you transition to it being our fault?

Here is the kicker. Natural climate change is an unforced process regardless of human influence. What your adversary is really talking about when they say “climate change is natural” is climate variability. Climate variability acknowledges that it naturally fluctuates. However, climate change is a change in the average over a long time, longer than the natural variability. What we are colloquially talking about when we say “climate change” now, is not natural.

And that’s what has been happening. That ice age that I just mentioned? Well, even though the Earth has been cooling for the last 1000 years, the temperature in the last 100 has skyrocketed. Which just perfectly aligns with when humans started to industrialize everything, meaning more carbon and all that bad stuff in the atmosphere. 

How do we know it's anthropogenic? We can rule out volcanoes as the cause because their effects only last a couple of years, and we know what orbital rotations and elliptical pattern the earth and sun are currently in. So that leaves us, humans, as the culprit.  And there you go. Yes, there is climate variability and that is entirely natural. But humans have taken what is natural, and completley turned it on its head.

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